Asian stocks climbed on Monday, buoyed by record high closes on Wall Street, while the dollar bounced back from multiweek lows against the yen and British pound in a crucial week for the U.S. interest rate outlook.
Chinese shares got an additional boost from a robust reading in a private manufacturing survey on Monday, confirming strength in the official data on manufacturing from the weekend.
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump provided the dollar support by warning the BRICS emerging nations against trying to replace the greenback with any other currency.
“There’ll be two drivers of market volatility this month. The first remains the impact of Trump, especially future fiscal settings and, increasingly, looming trade wars,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com.
“The second is what the U.S. Federal Reserve does with policy this month,” Rodda said. “If the Fed delivers (a cut) and provides sufficiently dovish guidance, it may green light some sort of ‘Santa Rally’.”
The euro was heavy due to the risk of an imminent collapse of the French government, with Prime Minister Michel Barnier confronted with a Monday deadline to make more budget concessions or face a no confidence vote.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (.HSI), opens new tab gained 0.9%, and mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), opens new tab added 0.6% as of 0153 GMT.
The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November from 50.3 the previous month, the highest since June and beating analysts’ forecasts of 50.5 in a Reuters poll.
The reading largely echoed an official survey on Saturday, which showed manufacturing activity expanded modestly, suggesting a blitz of stimulus is finally trickling through the world’s second-largest economy.
Australia’s stock benchmark (.AXJO), opens new tab gained 0.3%, inching back towards last week’s record high. South Korea’s KOSPI (.KS11), opens new tab advanced 0.3%.
Japan’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab declined 0.3%, dragged down by a 3.6% drop for heavily weighted Fast Retailing (9983.T), opens new tab, owner of the Uniqlo brand. The broader Topix index (.TOPX), opens new tab, by contrast, climbed 0.4%.
Japanese government bond yields climbed to a 16-year high after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in an interview published at the weekend that another rate hike is “approaching in the sense that economic data are on track.”
Market-implied odds of a quarter-point increase this month stood at around 64%.
The yield on two-year JGBs jumped 3 basis points to 0.625%, the highest since November of 2008.
However, Ueda also told the Nikkei that the central bank wants to scrutinise developments in the U.S. economy as there was a “big question mark” on its outlook, such as the fallout from Trump’s proposed tariff hikes.
The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, rose 0.2% to 106.23.
The dollar climbed 0.5% to 150.53 yen , bouncing back from Friday’s low of 149.47 yen, a level last seen on Oct. 21.
Sterling slid 0.4% to $1.2690, after touching $1.2750 on Friday for the first time since Nov. 13.
The euro sank 0.4% to $1.0530. On Friday, it reached the highest since Nov. 20 at $1.0597.
